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Forecast of GeoHazards International

The World's Most Earthquake - Vulnerable Cities
(Source: FORBES)
http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/13/haiti-earthquake-building-construction-business-logistics-earthquake.html


http://geowebinfo.com/disasters/EQVulnCities.html

GeoHazards International, a nonprofit research group aiming to reduce suffering due to natural disasters, measured the lethal potential of seismic disasters facing small and large cities in Asia and the Americas--areas most at risk for seismic calamity. The sample cities spanned both developed and developing countries. Variables measured: building frailty, potential for landslides and fires, and the rescue, firefighting and life-saving medical abilities of local authorities.

Kathmandu, Nepal, ranked first in the 2001 study, followed by Istanbul, Turkey; Delhi, India; Quito, Ecuador; Manila, Philippines; and Islambad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan--all of which could expect fatalities in the tens of thousands if disaster struck. The only first-world cities on the list were in Japan: Tokyo, Nagoya and Kobe. Fatalities in these cities were estimated in the hundreds, not thousands.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/14/earthquakes-china-construction-biz-logistics-cx_tl_0514earthquakes.html

List of World's Most Earthquake - Vulnerable Cities

1. Kathmandu, Nepal
Possible number of deaths: 69000
A study by GeoHazards International predicted a 6.0 earthquake would kill approximately 69,000 people in this growing city of about 1 million, the most densely populated district of Nepal.

2. Istanbul, Turkey
Possible number of deaths: 55000
An major quake would kill an estimated 55,000 in this city of 10 million, which sits at the juncture of the African and the Eurasian tectonic plates. The nearby 1999 Kocaeli quake left 18,000 dead and thousands more homeless.

3. Delhi, India
Possible number of deaths: 38000
Almost 14 million people live in Delhi, a sprawling area of more than 500 square miles. A 6.0 earthquake here would kill an estimated 38,000.

4. Quito, Ecuador
Possible number of deaths: 15000
A 6.0 hit on mountainous Quito, home to 1.8 million people, would kill an estimated 15,000. A quake in 1797 ended the lives of some 40,000. In October 2006, a 4.1 quake hit the city without causing major damage. A bigger threat: volcanoes. The city is surrounded by them and threatened by an active one--the only major city in the world where this is the case.

5. Manila, Philippines
Possible number of deaths: 13000
With 1.6 million people crammed into approximately 15 square miles, Manila is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. A 6.0 quake here would kill around 13,000 people.

6. Islamabad, Pakistan
Possible number of deaths: 12500
A 6.0 quake in Pakistan's capital, home to around 1 million people, would kill an estimated 12,500 people.

7. Izmir, Turkey
Possible number of deaths: 11500
This city of 3.5 million people, situated at the junction of the African and the Eurasian tectonic plates, is the third-largest city in the country. A 6.0 quake here would kill an estimated 11,500 people.

8. (7.) Mexico City, Mexico
Possible number of deaths: 11500
The country's 220-mile capital city, home to 2.2 million people, has been the site of numerous earthquakes throughout its history, most recently in 2001. A 6.0 quake would kill an estimated 11,500.

9. (7.) San Salvador, El Salvador
Possible number of deaths: 11500
The country's 220-square-mile capital city, home to 2.2 million people, has been the site of numerous earthquakes throughout its history, most recently in 2001. A 6.0 quake would kill an estimated 11,500.

10. Jakarta, Indonesia
Possible number of deaths: 11000
The city has a population of 18.4 million and is expected to hit 24 million by 2025. An estimated 11,000 people would be killed if a 6.0 earthquake hit here.

11. Tokyo, Japan
Possible number of deaths: 9000
An estimated 9,000 people would be killed if a 6.0 earthquake hit this city of 8 million people, the most vulnerable First World metropolis on the list. Huge earthquakes have struck the city many times: 1703, 1782, 1812, 1855 and 1923. The 1923 disaster, a magnitude 8.3 quake, killed more than 140,000.

12. Mumbai, India
Possible number of deaths: 8000

13. Guayaquil, Ecuador
Possible number of deaths: 4300

14. Bandung, Indonesia
Possible number of deaths: 3600

15. Santiago, Chile
Possible number of deaths: 2700

16. Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Possible number of deaths: 2500

17. Tijuana, Mexico
Possible number of deaths: 1800

18. Nagoya, Japan
Possible number of deaths: 900

19. Antofagasta, Chile
Possible number of deaths: 800

20. Kobe, Japan
Possible number of deaths: 300